Psychedelic Medicine

Promising research and receding stigma are giving investors cannabis-boom flashbacks.

Overview

Psychedelics, also known as hallucinogens, are powerful mind-altering substances that can temporarily induce hallucinations by affecting serotonin receptors in the brain responsible for controlling the senses. Currently, the most popular psychedelics include lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD), psilocybin (magic mushrooms), and ketamine.

Historically used in religious settings, psychedelics became illegal in the US in 1970 due to the social stigma surrounding their recreational use in the 1960s. However, there is a re-emerging demand for psychedelics as potential treatments for challenging and rising mental health conditions, such as depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Public perception toward psychedelics has also shifted, resulting in greater acceptance as evidenced by legalizations of its use in states like Oregon and Colorado. Furthermore, in May 2019, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved a ketamine derivative for therapeutic use, raising the potential for more widespread commercialization of psychedelics. The nascent industry—still largely in the research stage—has garnered significant investor interest, with many anticipating a cannabis-like boom.

However, challenges such as extensive regulatory approval processes, high treatment costs, and patent issues must be addressed to facilitate the successful transition of psychedelic therapies into mainstream healthcare.

Industry Updates

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Market Sizing

The US addressable market for FDA-approved depression and PTSD therapies is estimated to be USD 88.4 billion–176.8 billion

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Market Mapping


A majority of the businesses in the psychedelic industry focus on research and development (R&D), studying the benefits of psychedelic substances, and conducting preclinical and clinical research. Other segments, such as cultivation, clinics, and delivery platforms, have started to evolve only recently, driven by R&D advancements and positive developments in the regulatory landscape. Hence, along with R&D-focused leaders Compass Pathways, Lykos Therapeutics, Cybin and MindMed, the industry is now seeing growth in vertically integrated psychedelic players, such as Numinus, Psyence and others listed in the table below.

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The Disruptors


Having advanced their lead drugs to Phase III clinical trials, Compass Pathways, Cybin and MindMed can be safely considered the for-profit pioneers in psychedelic research. In some cases, psychedelic medicine companies may prioritize financial stability over groundbreaking research, with most companies in this industry pursuing relatively early-stage listings, following a strategy employed by cannabis companies.

In this industry, capital is concentrated among four Nasdaq-listed companies (as of November 2024): MindMed, GH Research, Compass, and ATAI Life Sciences. Other disruptors, such as Bright Minds, Core One Labs, and Silo Pharma, have also pursued listings or uplistings in recent years to accelerate growth through enhanced investor visibility.

Among the privately held companies, Beckley Psytech and Reunion Neuroscience, which develop psychedelic-inspired medicines for neuropsychiatric conditions, have raised the most funds, within USD 100 million–170 million in venture funding.

Funding History

Competitive Analysis


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Incumbents


The psychedelic industry has not yet attracted major interest from conventional pharmaceutical companies. This reluctance could be due to psychedelic therapies’ tendency to require a single round of treatment, as well as financial, legal, and reputational risks. Partnerships and acquisitions are highly likely shortly; however, this will only be evident as psychedelic companies progress toward the latter stages of drug development.

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Notable Investors


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Market sizing

The TAM for FDA-approved depression and PTSD therapies is estimated to be USD 88.4 billion–176.8 billion

The total addressable market (TAM) of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved psychedelic therapy market is defined as the total revenue opportunity available to psychedelic drug developers once their drug is approved for commercialization. 
Depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) therapies alone could target a patient population of 16.7 million. Adoption of these therapies will depend on two main factors: Price and insurance coverage, both of which are presently unknown. A sensitivity analysis for possible scenarios assuming a base case of USD 15,000 for a psychedelic treatment with 40% insurance coverage returned a TAM of USD 102.3 billion. 
Potential upside triggers 
  • Higher willingness to pay. The current estimate assumes a standard willingness to pay 9% of annual household income. If psychedelic therapies turn out to be a one-time treatment with higher efficacy rates, willingness to pay could go up. 
  • More patients than expected. High efficacy rates could attract patients not currently seeking treatment, increasing the addressable patient pool. 
Downside risks:  
  • Adverse side effects. A popular narrative around “bad trips” could scare off patients.
  • Lower efficacy. If treatments don’t work or require multiple rounds, patients may stick with traditional pharmaceuticals.
  • Stigma: Even with FDA approval, mainstream acceptance of psychedelics could lag research processes and decelerate mass adoption of these therapies.

Addressable market size calculation for depression and PTSD psychedelic therapies

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