Cloud Kitchens

Defining the future of the restaurant business.

Overview

Offering flexible kitchen rentals to lower foodservice costs

Cloud kitchens started as the restaurant industry’s equivalent of co-working spaces, in the form of shared kitchen spaces. Cloud kitchens are usually located in industrial districts, vacant warehouses, or unused parking or storage facilities, offering restaurateurs an alternative to expensive restaurant real estate. Clients can instead rent multiple fully-equipped cloud kitchens for flexible amounts of time. Cloud kitchens allow chefs to test their products or more established restaurants to expand their reach without spending on opening full-service restaurants.

While inspired by the co-working model, the most notable advancement enabling cloud kitchens has been online food ordering platforms. Increasingly, the growth of the cloud kitchen space has also given rise to virtual restaurant brands—chef-created or celebrity-inspired delivery-only brands uniquely suited for cloud kitchen preparation.

Industry Updates

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Market Sizing

The US Cloud Kitchens market could reach USD 1.8 billion–3.9 billion by 2027

Conservative case

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Base case

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Expansion case

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Market Mapping


Various cloud kitchen models are currently in operation, with the most popular being virtual restaurant brands, possibly due to the ease of expansion through third-party kitchens. Commissary kitchens are also a popular segment, with a relatively high number of players operating within the segment. Both segments are dominated by Minimum Viable Product and Go-to-Market players. 

All four segments are dominated by disruptors, with several incumbents (mostly rideshare service providers such as DoorDash and Grubhub) also operating in the industry. Independent cloud kitchens are less common in part due to their limited potential to reach scale. 

Cloud Kitchen companies can be segmented into the following four categories: 

The Disruptors


Most disruptors operating in the space are Go-to-Market or Minimum Viable Product stage players. The highest-funded company in the space is Wonder, which offers operator-managed cloud kitchen services as well as online food delivery services. Among the pure-play cloud kitchen operating companies, operator-managed cloud kitchen company Reef and commissary kitchen operator CloudKitchens remain the two highest-funded companies, despite operational setbacks. All three companies have accumulated over USD 1 billion each in funding.

Operator-managed cloud kitchens and commissary kitchens remain the highest-funded segments in the space. Despite being the segment with the highest number of disruptors, virtual restaurant brands has a relatively low amount of funding. 

The industry has also experienced incursions from pure-play online delivery management platforms (e.g., Nextbite) looking to leverage their tech stack to launch cloud kitchen businesses.

Funding History

Competitive Analysis


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Product Overview
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Incumbents


Online food aggregators remain popular entrants to the cloud kitchen space

Different types of players in the restaurant delivery supply chain are now exploring the cloud kitchen space. These include third-party delivery platforms and supermarket chains, who have entered the market via partnerships or backward integration strategy; third-party aggregators such as DoorDash and Deliveroo, who have now started to backward-integrate into the restaurant delivery value chain and are providing cloud kitchen services for existing restaurants on their platform, as well as services for original brands.

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Notable Investors


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Market Sizing

The US addressable market for cloud kitchen operators is estimated at ~USD 17.1 billion

The total addressable market (TAM) refers to the total revenue opportunity available for a product or service, while the actual market refers to the current market size based on revenue projections of firms operating in different segments covered in the cloud kitchen space.
The cloud kitchen market comprises four segments: 1) Operator managed cloud kitchens, 2) Commissary kitchens, 3) Virtual restaurant brands and 4) Independent cloud kitchens. The TAM for cloud kitchens in the US, covering the first three categories, is estimated to be ~USD 17.1 billion (see Appendix for details).
The total actual market size for cloud kitchens in the US is estimated at ~USD 1.5 billion (2022), indicating a penetration rate of 9%. We expect the market to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% to reach ~USD 2.9 billion by 2027, which will translate to an aggregate penetration rate of 17%.
We have not estimated the market size for independent cloud kitchens since this segment accounts for a small share of the broader cloud kitchen operator market and has limited engagement with restaurants and other food service establishments. We have defined independent cloud kitchens as players that fully own multiple delivery-only concepts or brands and mainly prepare these brands in their own cloud kitchen facilities. Our definition of independent cloud kitchens in the context of this space is also distinct from third-party definitions. Typically, third-party sources utilize this term to reference mom-and-pop restaurants operating on a delivery-only model. However, these players are excluded from our model as they neither offer kitchen space to cloud kitchen operators nor utilize their kitchen infrastructure.

TAM: Cloud Kitchens

Our conservative case expects the market to grow at a five-year CAGR of 3% to reach ~USD 1.8 billion by 2027 (11% penetration). The case assumes a potential slowdown in activity due to the capital-intensive nature of the real-estate plays made by the operator-managed and commissary kitchen segments, the challenges of securing financing to fund infrastructure expansions, the need to keep pace with regulations and permitting variations across the US. Our expansion case expects the market to grow at a five-year CAGR of 20% to reach ~USD 3.9 billion by 2027 (23% penetration), assuming consumer demand for off-premise dining continues to accelerate, as operators develop varied menu offerings for a range of consumers (e.g., plant-based diets).
Although operator managed cloud kitchens have the highest earning potential due to the comprehensive, end-to-end nature of their offering, virtual restaurant brands represent the most viable option for adoption by restaurants and food service establishments. Compared to the capital-intensive nature of the operator managed segment, the ease of deployment and scalability in the virtual restaurant brands segment drives establishments to engage in this space, with minimal incremental cost to the operator.
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