Passenger eVTOL Aircraft

Clean, congestion-free air travel gets liftoff

Overview

Humans have dreamed of flying cars for decades, with Henry Ford famously saying, "Mark my word: a combination airplane and motorcar is coming," back in 1940. Now, the advent of eVTOL technology is transforming that dream into reality. The continuous advancements in battery technology are enabling the emergence of a new urban air mobility system that is clean, quiet, and has the potential to revolutionize transportation in urban and suburban areas. In addition, the rapid increase in urban population, growing need for sustainable travel options, and desire for safer air travel are creating a conducive environment for eVTOL aircraft to thrive.

Compared to traditional ground-based infrastructure such as roads and railways, aerial ridesharing networks can be established rapidly and at significantly lower costs. This provides a sustainable solution to the urgent challenges of urban congestion and climate change. While the industry is currently not commercialized, stakeholders are actively striving to achieve an affordable price point comparable to UberX, making it more accessible to a broader audience in the future.

Industry Updates

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Market Sizing

The US Passenger eVTOL addressable market could range between USD 50.2 billion and USD 106.4 billion

Conservative case

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Base case

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Expansion case

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Market mapping


Fully electric aircraft are the most established and prominent

Fully electric eVTOLs have emerged as the most established and prominent type of eVTOL aircraft currently. These fully electric models leverage advanced battery technology to power their electric motors, offering zero-emission flights and reduced noise levels. However, to address the limitations of battery capacity and extend the range of eVTOL flights, manufacturers are actively expanding their development efforts into hybrid electric and hydrogen electric eVTOLs. 

Hybrid electric eVTOLs incorporate a combination of electric motors and internal combustion engines or gas turbines, providing a more extended flight range while still reducing emissions compared to traditional aircraft. On the other hand, hydrogen electric eVTOLs use hydrogen fuel cells to generate electricity, offering the advantage of quick refueling times and longer flight durations. By exploring these alternative propulsion systems, manufacturers can open up possibilities for longer-distance journeys and wider applications in the future.

Disruptors


Well-funded startups such as Joby Aviation have attracted investments from leading automobile manufacturers.

The attention surrounding eVTOLs gained significant momentum after Uber Technologies' announcement of its "Uber Elevate" flying car concept in 2016, which specifically targeted urban air-taxi services. In late 2020, Joby Aviation, a leading eVTOL developer, acquired Uber Elevate. Joby Aviation currently holds the highest funding within our coverage, with a substantial investment from Toyota.

Since 2021, the pursuit of practical applications for eVTOL services has accelerated, leading to a surge in development within the market. 2021 proved to be remarkable for the eVTOL industry, with notable disruptors such as Joby Aviation, Lilium, Archer Aviation, and Vertical Aerospace going public through mergers with special-purpose acquisition companies (SPACs). These significant developments highlight the expanding potential of the eVTOL sector and the growing interest from investors and the public alike.

Funding history

Competitive Analysis


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Incumbents


Automobile and aerospace majors moving toward passenger eVTOLs

Automobile and aerospace majors are increasingly directing their focus toward the development and implementation of passenger eVTOL aircraft. This shift can be attributed to the growing interest in urban air mobility and the pursuit of more sustainable transportation solutions. 

Renowned automotive companies such as Hyundai, General Motors, and Toyota are investing in eVTOL startups and introducing their own concept vehicles, demonstrating their strong commitment to this emerging market. At the same time, aerospace giants like Airbus and Boeing are leveraging their expertise in aircraft design, manufacturing, and safety to spearhead eVTOL initiatives. These collaborations between the automobile and aerospace industries harness their respective strengths and resources, resulting in an accelerated advancement of eVTOL technology. By combining forces, these major players are actively shaping the future of transportation, revolutionizing the perception of time and distance. This will pave the way for efficient, environmentally friendly, and congestion-relieving mobility options for urban dwellers.

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Notable Investors


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Market Sizing

The US passenger eVTOL addressable market estimated at USD 50-106 billion

The total addressable market (TAM) refers to the total revenue opportunity available for a product or service, while the obtained market is the actual market size based on revenue projections. We have not calculated the actual market size, as the eVTOL industry is still in its nascent stage and has not been commercialized. There are several regulatory hurdles and challenges that need to be overcome before eVTOLs can enter the market. These regulatory considerations, coupled with technological advancements and public acceptance, are critical factors that will ultimately determine the actual market size. As the industry advances and regulatory frameworks are established, a more accurate assessment of the market size will become feasible.
The TAM for the passenger eVTOL industry in the US is estimated to be USD 92 billion. Currently, the eVTOL rideshare segment holds the largest share, followed by eVTOL sales for personal use. Although we have calculated the TAM for eVTOL sales for firms and eVTOL usage for first respondents, we have excluded these segments from our market sizing, as they are deemed insignificant.    
In our expansion case, we anticipate a reduction in the eVTOL rideshare price per passenger mile to USD 1.5, accompanied by an increase in the average distance to 30 miles. This adjustment aligns with the price elasticity of demand for vehicle miles traveled (VMT) as observed in a 2018 survey. Additionally, our expansion forecasts account for a decrease in the price of an eVTOL to USD 35,000, reflecting Alef Aeronautics' plans for the Model X, expected to debut in 2030 with a starting price of USD 35,000. These estimations result in an addressable market size of USD 106 billion.
In our conservative case, we consider a scenario where the eVTOL rideshare price per passenger mile increases to USD 6 and the price of an eVTOL for personal use rises to USD 677,000. This projection provides an addressable market size of USD 50 billion.

Sensitivity analysis of passenger eVTOL addressable market size for variations of price per rideshare seat mile and price of private use eVTOL

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