The electric vehicle (EV) economy represents a future where battery electric vehicles (BEV) are readily used in transportation. Making up less than 2% of the total passenger vehicles in use, BEVs are presented with significant space for growth, while derived demand from EVs would also bode well for batteries and charging solutions. Falling battery costs and improvements in their range make BEVs competitive against gasoline counterparts. Aggressive electrification targets are also expected to drive the demand over the next few decades. If all proposed sustainability policies and electrification targets are met, the number of BEVs on the road is expected to hit around 196 million by 2030 (from around 20 million in 2022).
Battery startups are the most common, with a number of disruptors developing next-gen advancements in lithium-ion batteries as well as solid-state and other lithium-substitutes. Most next-gen battery startups are at the seed stage and their technologies are yet to be commercialized. Charging infrastructure is another segment with strong disruptor presence. Startups in this segment are somewhat mature with most being in the growth stage.
The passenger EVs segment is incumbent-heavy but startups providing differentiated solutions, such as solar EVs and subscription-based payment models, have shown some promise, along with a handful of commercial EV startups. These startups are yet to reach mass market adoption and are mostly in their seed or early stages.
Almost all major automakers have some form of electrification plan, which explains the strong incumbent presence in the passenger EVs segment. Among the top automakers, Volkswagen and the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance lead in terms of electrification, while automakers like General Motors, Ford, Toyota, and BMW are gradually ramping up their EV models and capacity. Meanwhile, Tesla, as the global market leader in the segment, holds a unique position as a pure-play incumbent.
The lithium-ion battery segment is also dominated by incumbents. Most of them have gained a foothold in the market by leveraging their in-house capabilities as diversified electronics players and long-standing partnerships with automakers. While incumbents have a somewhat limited presence in next-generation EV batteries, several automakers, as well as lithium-ion battery supplier Samsung, are developing solid-state batteries.
Shell and bp are two key incumbents in the EV charging infrastructure segment, having acquired two leading fast-charging suppliers ubitricity and Pulse, respectively. EV charging stations are a part of the two O&G players’ net-zero emission plans. Both ABB and Siemens are also prominent in this space. Meanwhile, incumbent presence in the commercial EVs segment is also somewhat limited, with just Daimler and Volvo having made any significant progress. EV and battery management solutions is another segment with little to no incumbent presence.