Smart Farming

Sustainably solving the food shortages of the future

Overview

Smart farming can resolve future food shortages

New technology is allowing new levels of efficiency throughout the agriculture value chain. Smart farming tech includes smart machinery like robots, software solutions for crop management, and drones and satellites for land management and crop protection. Internet of Things (IoT) and big data advancements have strongly supported the evolution of smart farming and agricultural technologies have become increasingly crucial given steadily growing demand for food, despite limited availability of farmland and rising labor costs.

Industry Updates

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Market Sizing

The US smart farming market revenue per year could reach USD 1.0–2.2 billion by 2028

Conservative case

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Base case

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Expansion case

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Use cases


Combining technology with traditional farming practices has given rise to various smart farming technologies and solutions. This is driven by the need to optimize and enhance efficiency, productivity, and sustainability across the farming value chain. Most use cases are aggregated in the food products subsegment (under consumer staples) and support managing various facets of farming operations, including supply chain, crops, livestock, irrigation, cash flows, and more.

Market Mapping


Crop monitoring and analytics software solution providers account for more than one-third of our list of disruptors and incumbents. The majority of these startups were established after 2014 and are at early or growth stages of product development and customer acquisition. These players have attracted total funding in the range of USD 1.4 billion–1.5 billion. 

Marketplace operators account for only a small portion of our list of disruptors. Two key players in this segment, Farmers Business Network and Produce Pay, have attracted the most amount of funding—in the USD 920 million–1.3 billion range. These startups connect participants across the agriculture value chain to streamline the farming process. Startups providing smart machinery such as agricultural robots and autonomous tractors closely follow, having received accumulated funding in the range of USD 600–650 million.

Incumbents
Expansion
Go-to-Market
Minimum Viable Product
Ideation
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Agribots/ Tractors
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Marketplace Operators
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Crops Monitoring & Analytics
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Livestock Monitoring & Analytics
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Drones and Satellites Imagery
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Anheuser-Busch
Anheuser-Busch
Anheuser-Busch
Anheuser-Busch
Anheuser-Busch

The Disruptors


Most smart farming startups focus across the entire agriculture value chain and appear to be at the Go-to-Market or Expansion stages. The startups have mostly passed the prototype stage and have launched their product attracting a customer base. In addition, startups in the Minimum Viable Product stage, such as Foodful and AgriSync, are in the Go-to-Market Expansion stage with products that are ready to use.

Software solution providers who aim to serve across the entire value chain enabling precise decision-making form the majority of the startups. Even those players that produce smart equipment like drones (UAV IQ) or autonomous tractors (Kray Technologies) focus on software and development of a platform for farm management. Precision agriculture is even a priority for players that focus on conserving water through the agriculture process, such as SWIIM Systems. Machine learning and AI are being increasingly adopted for this purpose. Startups like Farm Lead, which focus on creating a marketplace for farmers are exceptions.

Funding History

Competitive Analysis


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Incumbents


Incumbents are beginning to partner with startups

Most incumbents in the industry are players established in providing hardware and software solutions solely to the agriculture industry. These companies have been quick to adopt smart farming precision techniques and big data analytics. 

Some companies, such as Trimble and John Deere, serve industries beyond agriculture, which may better enable them to provide their products and services throughout the agricultural value chain rather than simply focusing on a particular segment.  

The industry is also seeing software-oriented companies with backgrounds in artificial intelligence and big data including NVIDIA, Amazon, Microsoft, and IBM use their expertise to enter the Smart Farming market.

Incumbents that have had a head start on growth and expansion through in-house development are now also partnering with or acquiring startups with the potential to expand product reach. Newcomers like Amazon and NVIDIA are also following this trend.

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Notable Investors


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Market Sizing

The addressable US market for smart farming products (capital cost) is estimated at ~USD 46.2 billion

The total addressable market (TAM) refers to the total revenue opportunity available for a product or service, while the actual market is the market size based on revenue projections. 
The TAM for the smart farming industry considers the revenue opportunity from capital expenditure on hardware as well as recurring revenue from subscriptions for software and maintenance. Our analysis focuses on a basic smart farming technology package for crop farms, which includes 1) specific smart farming machinery (agribots and autonomous tractors), 2) drones, and 3) software solutions. Smart farming technology for livestock has been excluded, and should provide further upside. Our TAM does not consider replacement demand for smart farming hardware, which would create additional upside to our estimates depending on the effective useful life of each product.
Our addressable market in the US for smart farming for crop farms is estimated at ~USD 46.2 billion in terms of capital investments. A majority of this addressable market comes from the smart farming machinery segment, which includes autonomous tractors that are yet to be commercialized successfully. The TAM for software solutions considers a basic software package that farmers are likely to use which includes VRT systems and analytical hardware such as sensors. 
In addition, there is a potential revenue opportunity from the maintenance of smart farming technologies. Our annual TAM estimate for such revenue opportunities stands at USD 3.1 billion per year.
The actual aggregate market for smart farming technology used by crop farms is estimated at USD 8.4 billion as of 2023, implying a penetration of 18.2% of our addressable market for capital cost. Incremental spend on technology in 2023 was estimated at around USD 0.8 billion by crop farms in the US. In this base case, we expect the US smart farming market for crop farms to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 11.7% to reach USD 14.6 billion in 2028, with the annual spend on smart farming technology in the year standing at USD 1.6 billion.
In our scenario analysis, our conservative case estimate assumes that small farms, which make up the majority of farms, to be investment-constrained and thus face challenges to afford smart farming technology despite their willingness to do so, and the proportion of small farms using tech will stay close to 2023’s levels. In this case, we expect growth of 9% through 2028, translating to an annual spend on technology of USD 0.95 billion in 2028 and an aggregate market size of USD 12.9 billion (28% penetration). 
Our expansion case assumes that with appropriate government support for small farms and prices stabilizing for certain smart technologies, adoption rates will increase and spur market growth at a higher CAGR of around 13.8% through 2028, implying an annual spend on technology of around USD 2.2 billion. This will deliver an aggregate market size of USD 16 billion in 2028, with a penetration of 34.7%.
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